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There is no shortage of data on incidents such as accidents or near misses. Some researchers have studied the figures in detail and concluded that
there appears to be a relationship between the numbers of different types of accidents.
F. E. Bird used accident data to produce the following accident triangle:

Other researchers have produced similar accident ratio triangles:

The actual figures vary between the different accident triangles but the important thing to note is that, for every major incident or fatality, there are many more less-serious or near-miss incidents.
The analysis also shows that:
It is invariably a matter of chance whether given event results in injury, damage, or a near miss, i.e. near-misses could so easily become more serious incidents.
Near-miss/less serious incident data can, therefore, be a useful predictor of accident potential.
All events are due to failure to control – so we can learn from even minor incidents.
The data from these triangles has a number of limitations that you need to think about before trying to apply it:
Not every near miss or minor incident involves risks that could actually have led to a serious incident or fatality.
Be careful comparing:
Different triangles.
Different definitions (e.g. lost-time accidents).
Different industries (with different types of risk).
Statistical significance – you need a certain amount of representative data for a meaningful comparison between your workplace and industry as a whole.
Accident
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